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Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance between Vietnam and the United States in Nonlinear Model Framework - Cuong Khanh Quoc Tran

 Cuong Khanh Quoc Tran, Hat Dang Nguyen, Cuong Huy Tran, Loan Kim Thi Vo The. Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance between Vietnam and the United States in Nonlinear Model Framework// Гуманитарный научный вестник [Humanitarian Scientific Bulletin]. 2021. №2. Pp. 200-206. ISSN 2541-7509. DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.4594588.

Abstract. This paper aims to determine the existence of Marshall – Lerner condition and J cure for the trade balance of Vietnam and the United in linear and nonlinear models between Vietnam and the United States through the time from 2010:1 to 2017:12. The results support the existence of J curve in the linear model. Nonlinear model demonstrates the Marshall – Lerner condition. Wald test indicates the exchange rate has asymmetric in the short-run and the symmetric in the long run. These results indicate that policymakers can apply monetary policy of exchange rate policy to improve the trade balance. Keywords. Asymmetric, Exchange rate, trade balance, NARDL, Vietnam, United States.



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